Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 81803.280702 86343.806169 90881.407849 95753.091173 100832.096644 105967.825757 111550.101296
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 74877.730159 81873.582942 89058.662242 96979.363010 105455.536759 114243.729892 124033.708900
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 68891.190318 77486.014168 86507.269501 96660.899904 107749.195768 119468.980888 132770.903038
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 65502.029774 75415.303983 86008.131246 98134.176628 111595.082942 126043.369539 142687.109488
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 62407.903566 73350.533357 85228.520872 99028.031495 114565.281119 131464.314006 151179.103050
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 59260.236053 70983.815106 83893.891573 99095.098038 116430.909142 135511.174276 158023.167781
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 56374.019098 68728.077676 82515.056799 98950.675458 117914.976333 139014.144472 164163.622718
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 54960.561425 68063.587410 82860.160634 100692.388508 121480.239746 144826.791322 172902.538167
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 53684.012362 67469.358599 83209.655787 102372.615669 124925.144851 150474.365299 181449.933749
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 52017.805450 66323.442943 82834.905336 103135.389907 127246.822120 154790.790091 188445.731857
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 50008.923686 64676.616293 81786.934479 103027.694750 128482.964885 157798.833953 193889.949944
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 48441.665969 63496.719967 81235.389785 103455.973253 130308.708126 161467.556646 200095.990302
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 46694.783828 62059.646329 80350.267566 103474.843307 131658.538601 164612.276938 205754.754847
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 45708.794524 61529.339118 80541.175355 104781.680773 134555.266028 169610.089446 213655.790833
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 43968.508227 59988.357943 79431.888954 104443.235081 135412.797115 172139.176676 218590.884603
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 43261.639179 59725.099189 79881.576869 106010.886775 138592.502060 177472.028453 226927.960917
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 42310.284348 59109.624689 79857.567652 106961.825126 140996.044628 181860.816403 234135.898014
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 41008.052493 57994.435486 79161.998529 107033.173349 142280.137926 184867.356076 239657.429860
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 39674.743063 56794.318811 78318.034847 106879.540167 143253.126790 187472.791549 244681.266069
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 39296.271752 56835.955486 79054.384278 108732.163187 146750.590336 193209.146470 253595.422050
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 38912.622552 56852.168228 79744.669589 110519.017474 150168.095111 198861.958055 262439.554641
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 38137.441661 56315.760459 79692.877059 111330.080220 152334.958632 202956.787037 269362.112408
2025-05-11 00:00:00+00:00 37015.671933 55276.044668 78950.303266 111215.571664 153296.192645 205528.627738 274381.272510